USL Championship
LA
Las Vegas Lights
Home
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LE
Lexington
Away
Prediction dossier
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
LA
Las Vegas Lights
Home
LE
Lexington
Away
Evidence model
Match analysis
Probabilities are an informational model estimate, not a guarantee or financial advice.
Locked pre-match forecast
Draw
Evidence-adjusted · Evidence strength: Moderate
A normalized informational view of the strongest available pre-match evidence.
Locked snapshot · computedMost likely36%Draw
Exact 100% normalized Home / Draw / Away distribution
- 01Verified full-time 1X21 eligible quote; independent source count unknown
- 02Margin normalizedImplied shares rescaled to exactly 100%
- 03Optional evidence layerVenue form / H2H adjusted the odds-implied base
Venue form used by the model
Las Vegas Lights Home venue only - 10 samples 4W 2D 4L 13 scored / 13 conceded
Lexington Away venue only - 10 samples 4W 1D 5L 21 scored / 17 conceded
Head to head
2
Home wins
1
Draws
1
Away wins
Evidence stack
- Odds-implied match-result signal removes the quoted margin and renormalizes Home / Draw / Away to 100%.
- Venue form uses 10 home and 10 away samples.
- Head-to-head uses 4 dated meetings.
Data coverage
1 eligible odds quote · Moderate evidence
24 verified historical rows.
Analysis cache refreshed from verified inputs.
Recent results
Las Vegas Lights
L
Phoenix Rising
2-3
W
San Antonio
1-0
L
Sacramento Republic
2-3
D
Hartford Athletic
1-1
W
Orange County SC
2-0
Lexington
W
El Paso
3-1
W
Monterey Bay
3-2
W
Orange County SC
6-0
W
Oakland Roots
4-1
L
Sporting Jax
2-3
Venue goal trend
Home scored
1.3
Home conceded
1.3
Away scored
2.1
Away conceded
1.7
Signal contribution
H 27 D 38 A 35
H 35 D 33 A 32
H 43 D 29 A 28
H 28 D 29 A 43
Forecast audit Read-only evidence timeline
Immutable forecast audit
What the model knew — and when
- 01Inputs capturedVerified evidence was stored with the forecast.
- 02Snapshot locked2026-10-18T02:09:57.181Z / 2026-10-15.1
- 03Match started2026-10-18T02:30:00Z
- 04Final result recordedThe source has not supplied a validated final score.
Locked pre-match snapshotThis snapshot is read-only and is never recomputed after kick-off.